Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap

Thomas Garner
Aug 16
12 min read

Updated: 3 days ago

Oakham Farm near Middleburg, Loudoun County, Virginia

Underwrite the parcel, not the vineyard. Loudoun County has tasting rooms and a hunt-country reputation. It also has two opened AirROI town files that refuse to be one yield. Leesburg, August 8, 2026: 108 listings, 1 percent occupancy, $324 ADR, 6 percent, revenue down 12.2 percent. Middleburg, same date: 44 listings, 5 percent occupancy, $557 ADR, 0 percent, revenue up 6.9 percent. Those are two memos.

The Greenwood Estate row on the Leesburg manager table. Alicia, 1 listing, AirDNA's Leesburg snapshot on August 5, 2026 prints 194 listings, about $28.7K, 53 percent occupancy, and $322 ADR. Cite it separately. Never average it with AirROI's 108. Accessory use is 180 days. Commercial Whole House is a different paper. $4.9 billion in 2024 visitor spending is destination spend, not a T12.

Themarket reportis the evidence pile. Thepermitpost is the clerk. This page is who should buy, who should walk, and which number is allowed in the first paragraph of a feasibility note. DC is 45 to 60 minutes. That is a drive. It is not a demand guarantee and not a reason to underwrite the house as Arlington.

Underwrite the parcel not the vineyard

The published year decides the clerk, the use, the HOA, and the photograph; Leesburg is not Middleburg; Purcellville has no AirROI file in this pass. Unincorporated Loudoun is not a town square; A buyer who fell in love with a ridge and then asked about nights is doing the work backwards. Pull WebLogis; Know whether the parcel sits under the 2023 zoning ordinance or the 1972 ordinance; ask accessory versus Commercial Whole House before you run a 280-night model.

Stone Tower, Breaux, Bluemont, Tarara, and Doukenie are Saturday demand if the hours are live. They are not a cap rate. Salamander Resort is a hotel competitor, not a comp for a three-bedroom. The Middleburg Spring Races on April 18, 2026 are a Saturday. A Saturday is not a trailing-twelve. Thehow-to-marketpost can name those pins. An investment memo that leads with them is a brochure.

Houses are 63.9 percent of the Leesburg file and 59.1 percent of the Middleburg file. Entire-home share is 84.3 and 97.7 percent. You are probably buying a house, not a hotel. Underwrite taxes, insurance, septic or sewer, and February heat as a house. Then layer the nights the clerk will allow. Vineyard adjectives do not close a gap between a

Cite two medians in two sentences

Typical Leesburg properties generate about Typical Middleburg properties generate about Those two sentences are the investment page. Do not blend them. Do not pick the Do not pick the

Averages sit above those medians. Leesburg typical annual is 1 percent occupancy. Middleburg typical annual is 5 percent occupancy. Median occupancy is about 42 percent in Leesburg and about 37 percent in Middleburg. Median ADR is about $236 and about $374. Top-quartile months print Bottom-quartile months print A model that uses only the average is choosing the flattering column.

A lead time of fifty-six to fifty-nine days is underwriting detail for Loudoun hosts, not trivia, because a race weekend or holiday arrival can wipe a month of calendar if the gallery and about block still read like a generic Northern Virginia published year. Write the arrival weekend and the clerk path in full sentences so the listing cannot float onto the wrong town before anyone pays for more marketing words.

Treat AirDNA and AirROI as Separate Windows

AirDNA Leesburg, August 5, 2026: 194 listings, about $28.7K typical annual, 53 percent occupancy, $322 ADR. AirROI Leesburg, August 8, 2026: 108 listings, 1 percent, $324. Different vendor, different count, different revenue, different occupancy. This page will not average 194 with 108. It will not average $28.7K with It will not split the difference on occupancy and call 48 percent prudent.

Vendors do not share a census. Active, available, and what counts as a listing move between desks. A blended Leesburg number is a third figure nobody published. Put AirDNA in its own sentence with its own date. Put AirROI in its own sentence with its own date. If the underwriting committee wants one file, pick one and say why. Curiosity about the other file is allowed. A midpoint is not.

This pass did not open AirDNA Middleburg, Do not drag 194 Leesburg AirDNA doors west onto a 44-listing Middleburg AirROI file. Two towns, Two vendors only where opened, Thetourism datapost is a third dataset that is also not your T12. keep every logo in its own paragraph, The Greenwood Estate row on the Leesburg manager table, Alicia, 1 listing,.

Accessory versus whole house

The county packet at loudoun.gov/shorttermrentals treats accessory short-term rental as fewer than 30 consecutive days and no more than 180 days a year. Commercial Whole House is a different use and may need a minor special exception or a special exception. That split is the first underwriting fork. A 180-day accessory calendar is not a 365-day pro forma with a haircut. It is a different business.

Confirm the published year on WebLogis, Confirm the ordinance year, Confirm the town if the published year is incorporated. Confirm the HOA, Then ask Zoning which use you have, This page will not decide it from a listing photo. A whole-home listing can still be accessory, A whole-home listing can be commercial, The180-nightpost is the model math once you know. Until you know, do not run nights.

Six 30-night stays can spend an accessory year. Leesburg already has 35.2 percent of listings on a 30-plus minimum. That product and a wine-trail weekend product compete for the same 180 days if the use is accessory. Buyers who need 200 nights to make the note work on accessory paper should walk or change the paper. Special exception is a process with neighbors. Price the process. Do not assume it.

Supply is up in Leesburg

Leesburg supply is up 25.6 percent year over year on the opened file, Revenue is down 12.2 percent. More doors, less revenue, That is the 2026 Leesburg sentence, Occupancy is 44.1 percent. Median occupancy is about 42 percent, A buyer who treats 108 listings as a tight market is reading a different dashboard. Superhost share is 63.9 percent, You are entering a thicker, slightly poorer year, not a pioneer year.

Middleburg supply is up 10.0 percent. Revenue is up 6.9 percent. Do not midpoint those year-over-year lines with Leesburg's. Middleburg is 44 doors, 38.5 percent occupancy, 0.0 percent professionally managed. It is a smaller, more expensive file with its own weather. A county-wide supply story that averages plus-25.6 and plus-10.0 is another invented number. Cite the town you are buying.

Evolve's 7 Leesburg listings are not the supply story. Independent hosts added the doors. The DIYpost is why a 9.3 percent PM share does not save a late listing. If you need rising revenue to justify the price, Leesburg's opened file is not your exhibit. Look at the parcel's alternative use as a house. If the house does not work empty, it does not work as a hope.

$4.9 billion is not a T12

Loudoun Now on September 9, 2025, citing VTC, put Loudoun visitor spending at $4.9 billion in 2024, up 9 percent. Lodging was $441.5 million, Food was $741.5 million, Transportation was $2.9 billion and includes Dulles. Jobs were 18,856, State and local taxes were $244.6 million, That is destination visitor spend. It is not host revenue, It is not a Leesburg ADR, It is not a Middleburg T12.

Ask what the $4.9 billion measures, Airport transportation inflates the county total, A cabin in western Loudoun does not collect a Dulles fare. Do not divide $441.5 million by 108 Leesburg AirROI listings, Do not divide it by 44 Middleburg listings. Do not midpoint $4.9 billion against an older Visit Loudoun $1.9 billion page, The older page is stale. This cluster will not average the two.

Thetourism datapost is the full caution. An investment memo may cite $4.9 billion as demand proof that people come to the county. It may not cite it as income. Your income exhibit is

Who should walk

Walk if the published year is accessory and the note needs more than 180 days. Walk if Zoning will not put the use in writing. Walk if the HOA already said no. Walk if you cannot carry a bottom-quartile month, Walk if the only number you liked was 9 billion. Walk if you needed a Purcellville occupancy series this draft did not open.

Walk if you planned to average AirDNA and AirROI until the occupancy looked like a lender slide. Walk if July has to be a Leesburg peak for the year to work. Walk if you thought Middleburg's 0.0 percent PM share meant no competition. Superhost share there is 72.7 percent. Walk if DC proximity was your entire thesis. Forty-five minutes is close enough for the guest to go home.

Stay in the conversation if the house works as a house, the clerk answer is written, the median month covers the gap you actually have, and you can tell Leesburg's file from Middleburg's without notes. The finance post is the packet you hand a lender after that filter. The startup post is the cash besides the down payment. Walk if you cannot carry a bottom-quartile month,

The only investment sentence

Cite AirDNA's 194 and $28.7K alongside AirROI's 108 as two separate figures rather than blending them, and confirm accessory 180 versus Commercial Whole House before you model a year. Leesburg added 25.6 percent more supply and lost 12.2 percent revenue. $4.9 billion is destination spend, not your note. Underwrite the parcel.

If the house does not work without a vineyard adjective, it does not work. The remote post is the only 30-night hedge, and only where the clerk allows the stay. The only investment sentence is two medians, one published year, one use, one floor month, and a refusal to treat Greenwood Estate as a comp. Stay in the conversation if the house works as a house, the clerk answer is written, the median month covers the gap you actually have, and you can tell Leesburg's file from Middleburg's without notes.

Buyers who needed one county yield can read the market report and stop. This county did not publish one. Two files. One clerk. Walk or write the memo with the labels still on. Walk if you needed a Purcellville occupancy series this draft did not open. The only investment sentence is two medians, one published year, one use, one floor month, and a refusal to treat Greenwood Estate as a comp.

Cite Leesburg AirDNA's 194 / $28.7K / 53 percent / $322 as its own figure rather than blending it with AirROI's. Do not send a lender $4.9 billion. Do not model 365 short-term nights if zoning calls the use accessory. Leesburg supply is up 25.6 percent and revenue is down 12.2 percent, that is the year, not a gold rush. The Greenwood Estate is not the comps set. Confirm GIS, the town, and Commercial Whole House before you close.

A special exception timeline is a carrying-cost line, A town that adds a rule is a second cashier. Unincorporated Loudoun is not Middleburg, Purcellville is not Leesburg, Model February. Model the 180-day accessory year if that is the use, Cite revenue down 12.2 percent in Leesburg next to supply up 25.6 percent so the lender sees both. The finance post is the note, This page is the buy box, The vineyard is not collateral.

Walk if you need 365 short-term nights and zoning will not write Commercial Whole House. Walk if you need the Greenwood Estate as the comps set. Walk if you will not open WebLogis. Stay if you can carry February and cite the median that matches the published year. The canyon-equivalent here is a vineyard. It is still not collateral.

Cite n with every average, Leesburg n is 108, Middleburg n is 44. A 44-door mean moves when one estate books, A 108-door mean moves when Evolve adds a door, Neither mean is a note. Attach occupancy, Attach the median, Attach the clerk. That is the investment sentence this cluster will stand behind, The rest is a vineyard brochure.

Carry January and February even if you close in May. The first winter is the test the brochure skipped. If the note cannot survive a That is the last investment sentence. Vineyard adjectives do not close a gap between a

Frequently Asked Questions

Can I invest in a Loudoun short-term rental?

Underwrite the parcel first. Confirm town versus unincorporated Loudoun, accessory versus Commercial Whole House, and July 1 registration. $4.9 billion is not a nightly rate. Confirm accessory 180 versus Commercial Whole House before you model a year. Ask accessory versus Commercial Whole House before you run a 280-night model. Confirm GIS, the town, and Commercial Whole House before you close.

Which revenue number is typical?

Cite Leesburg Do not pick a winner because one sounds more investable. Middleburg, same date: 44 listings, 5 percent occupancy, $557 ADR, 0 percent, revenue up 6.9 percent. For independent hosts in Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap, treat this as a listing and clerk-path question first, not a generic STR marketing slogan. Keep the answer tied to what Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap can actually underwrite on the ground, and leave unverified occupancy claims off the first paragraph.

Should I average AirDNA?

AirDNA Leesburg is 194 / $28.7K / 53 percent / $322. AirROI is 108 / 1 percent / $324. AirROI Leesburg, August 8, 2026: 108 listings, 1 percent, $324. Leesburg, August 8, 2026: 108 listings, 1 percent occupancy, $324 ADR, 6 percent, revenue down 12.2 percent. For independent hosts in Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap, treat this as a listing and clerk-path question first, not a generic STR marketing slogan. Keep the answer tied to what Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap can actually underwrite on.

Is AirROI Low a green light?

The county wants registration and a zoning permit. Commercial Whole House may need a special exception. Commercial Whole House is a different use and may need a minor special exception or a special exception. Walk if you need 365 short-term nights and zoning will not write Commercial Whole House. Do not model 365 short-term nights if zoning calls the use accessory. Directly: the answer hinges on airroi, green, light for this listing, so the host can act on the question without a memo rewrite.

What does Leesburg supply +25.6 percent mean?

AirROI prints supply up 25.6 percent and revenue down 12.2 percent on the Leesburg file. That is the year, not a gold rush. More doors can sit beside a falling average. Leesburg revenue down 12.2 percent year over year with supply up 25.6 percent is a warning that averages can fall while more doors appear.

Can I 9 billion as income?

That figure measures 2024 county visitor spending, including $2.9 billion in transportation around Dulles. Listing revenue is the AirROI file. Loudoun Now on September 9, 2025, citing VTC, put Loudoun visitor spending at $4.9 billion in 2024, up 9 percent. $4.9 billion in 2024 visitor spending is destination spend, not a T12. That is destination visitor spend.

Who should walk away?

Anyone who needs an unlimited whole-home year without checking Commercial Whole House, anyone who treats the Greenwood Estate as the comps set, and anyone who will not confirm GIS. Walk if you need the Greenwood Estate as the comps set. Walk if you cannot carry a bottom-quartile month,. For independent hosts in Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap, treat this as a listing and clerk-path question first, not a generic STR marketing slogan. Keep the answer tied to what Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap can actually.

Is the ?

It is a vendor median month from the August 8, 2026 Leesburg snapshot. Attach the Middleburg median only if the published year is Middleburg. Cite Leesburg Cite

the Crest & Cove intro·local SEO keywords that actually book·the five elements of a converting hero·how to compare STR marketing agencies·Asheville paddling spots worth the drive·this cluster on named-town facts·Destin against AirROI, not leftover year·the last cluster against named-town facts.

How should a host read this: Cite two medians in two sentences?

For hosts weighing Cite two medians in two sentences: Typical Leesburg properties generate about Typical Middleburg properties generate about Those two sentences are the investment page. Do not blend them. Do not pick the Do not pick the Hosts should read this section against their own clerk path and listing promise, not a national franchise playbook.

How should a host read this: Underwrite the parcel not the vineyard?

For hosts weighing Underwrite the parcel not the vineyard: The published year decides the clerk, the use, the HOA, and the photograph. Leesburg is not Middleburg; Purcellville has no AirROI file in this pass; Unincorporated Loudoun is not a town square. A buyer who fell in love with a ridge and then asked about nights is doing the work backwards; Pull WebLogis; Know whether the parcel sits under the 2023 zoning ordinance or the 1972 ordinance. Ask accessory versus Commercial Whole House before you run a 280-night model.

Work with Crest & Cove Creative

A Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap listing fails when the about block sells a costume overnight the driveway cannot keep. Guests who typed this published year deserve the hall and gallery that match the tax map.

We help Is Loudoun a Good STR Investment? Two Medians, One Cap hosts keep listing and marketing copy honest so underwrite the parcel, not the vineyard stays true before anyone pays for more words. Neighbor mix-ups stay off the first paragraph. If the gallery still could sit on the wrong town, we rewrite the opening until it matches arrival weekend.

Reach out at crestcove.co or (256) 998-7502.