Buying a Neskowin Rental in 2026: What the Numbers Actually Support
Updated: Aug 28
Underwrite Neskowin at $38,932 on 154 listings for the trailing twelve months of August 2025 through July 2026, according to AirROI. The average night ran $355, occupancy came in at 35.9 percent, and revenue per available night landed at $141. Year over year, that revenue is down 7.6 percent, a real decline worth building into any purchase model, not a rounding error to wave off.
This is one town's data from one trailing window. It is not a promise, and it is not a substitute for underwriting the specific parcel you are bidding on. Treat these figures as the starting line for a purchase model, not the finish.
The 2026 Numbers: $38,932 on 154 Listings
The average night across the 154-listing sample ran $355, occupancy landed at 35.9 percent, and revenue per available night worked out to $141. Active supply held essentially flat year over year at 0.0 percent change, so this is a market where the listing count did not grow, and revenue still fell 7.6 percent.
Guest stays averaged 3.3 nights, typically booked about 61 days ahead of arrival. Most bookings originate from Portland, then Seattle, which tracks with Neskowin's position as an easy weekend or short-trip drive from the I-5 corridor rather than a long-haul destination.
Professionally managed listings make up 46.8 percent of the 154 total, and Superhost status covers 27.9 percent. One operator, Meredith, holds 31 of those listings alone, a useful data point if you are trying to gauge how much of the competitive set is already consolidated under a handful of larger operators versus independent hosts.
Do Not Blend a Forks Year Into a Neskowin Purchase
Forks, Washington published $35,529 across 345 listings in the same data pull, a different state, a different market, and more than double the listing count. A lender or spreadsheet template that asks for "the coastal number" without naming the town is asking you to average two unrelated markets into one file.
Keep the two towns on separate lines in any underwriting packet. Neskowin's $38,932 on 154 listings is the figure for this specific parcel; Forks' $35,529 on 345 listings belongs to a different state, market, and regulatory environment entirely, and it should never appear in the same cell of a spreadsheet.
Licensing Sits With the Parcel, Not the Listing Scrape
Neskowin is unincorporated, sitting within Tillamook County rather than inside any city limits. Short-term rental permitting for the parcel runs through Tillamook County Community Development at 1510-B Third Street, Tillamook, OR 97141, not a town hall, because Neskowin does not have one.
A county-level short-term rental operator license applies. This pass could not confirm a specific 2026 license fee as a single published number on the county's primary page, so do not let a buyer packet cite one. Call the Tillamook County office directly before you close and get the current fee and renewal terms in writing.
Neskowin itself is a small unincorporated beach community on the central Oregon Coast, best known for Proposal Rock at the mouth of Hawk Creek and the "ghost forest" of ancient stump remnants that appear on the beach at low tide. That local character matters for marketing a listing, but it has no bearing on which government office issues a permit; that is decided by the parcel's map location, not the town's name recognition.
What a 7.6 Percent Decline Means for Underwriting
Revenue on this town's listings fell 7.6 percent year over year on a single AirROI sample. That is one year of movement, not a trend line built from multiple points, and it should be read that way in any financing conversation.
Do not build a multi-year growth assumption on a single data point, and do not offset the decline by importing a stronger Forks year into the model. If a lender's DSCR calculation wants a rosier trajectory, resist filling that gap with numbers pulled from a different market.
154 Listings and Flat Supply: Read the Rest of the Picture
Active supply held essentially flat, 0.0 percent change, alongside the revenue decline, so this is not simply a story of oversupply diluting each host's take. Something else pulled per-listing revenue down, whether softer demand, pricing behavior, or a mix shift within the existing 154 listings.
Professionally managed listings made up 46.8 percent of the total, and Superhost status covers 27.9 percent, which is worth knowing before adding another unit to an already partly consolidated competitive set.
Treat the Sample Size as a Sample, Not a Census
154 listings is a real number, but it is still a sample pulled from one data provider over one trailing-twelve-month window, not a census of every short-term rental in the area. Read the year-over-year swing and the averages with that caveat attached.
79 of those 154 listings, roughly half, carry a 30-night minimum stay, meaning they function more like extended-stay or mid-term housing than nightly vacation rentals. Mixing those into a nightly-rate ADR without adjusting for stay length will skew revenue expectations. January is the slowest month by occupancy; a vacancy haircut that specifically names January is more honest underwriting than a flat annual assumption.
A License Does Not Transfer With the Deed
Buying an existing short-term rental does not hand you the previous owner's permit. Short-term rental licenses in Tillamook County are tied to the operator's registration, not the property title, so plan on applying fresh once you close.
Confirm current hours and requirements directly with Tillamook County Community Development at 1510-B Third Street before promising a buyer or a lender a specific timeline to get operating. Do not assume Forks' process, fees, or timeline apply just because both towns turn up in the same regional search; they sit in different states with entirely different county and municipal rules.
What a Buyer Packet Should Actually Carry
A clean underwriting packet for a Neskowin purchase carries the current AirROI year, $38,932 on 154 listings, August 2025 through July 2026, the correct permitting office, Tillamook County, and a clear line separating visitor spending data from actual debt-service math.
If a loan officer asks for a longer coastal history than this one year provides, say so plainly rather than inventing a number or blending in a neighboring market's data to fill the gap. Keep Neskowin's numbers named as Neskowin's, and keep every other town's numbers out of the title.
Frequently Asked Questions
What revenue figure should I use to underwrite a Neskowin rental purchase?
Use $38,932 on 154 listings, AirROI's trailing twelve months from August 2025 through July 2026. That is the number to write into a DSCR calculation, not a blended coastal average and not a number borrowed from Forks or any other town. Bring the date range and listing count along with the dollar figure so a lender can verify where it came from.
Why shouldn't I combine Neskowin and Forks revenue numbers?
Forks, Washington published $35,529 across 345 listings in the same data pull, a different state, more than double the listing count, and an unrelated regulatory environment. Blending the two produces a number that describes neither market accurately. Keep each town's figure on its own labeled line when you present it to a lender or broker.
Which office handles short-term rental permitting for a Neskowin property?
Tillamook County Community Development, at 1510-B Third Street, Tillamook, OR 97141, handles permitting. Neskowin is unincorporated, so there is no town hall; permitting runs through the county. Confirm current requirements and fees directly with the county before you close, since this office is the actual regulating desk for the parcel.
Is Neskowin's 7.6 percent year-over-year decline something to worry about?
It is a real one-year decline worth building into your model, but it is a single data point, not a multi-year trend. Do not assume it repeats, and do not smooth it over by importing a stronger year from a different market. Pull multiple years of Neskowin-specific data if you can before underwriting conservatively.
Does flat supply mean the 154-listing market isn't oversupplied?
Active supply moved 0.0 percent year over year, so the revenue decline is not explained by a flood of new competing listings. The cause is more likely pricing or demand softness than oversupply. That's a meaningfully different signal for a buyer than a market getting flooded with new competition.
How reliable is a 154-listing sample?
It is a real, usable sample, but treat it as a sample rather than a full census. Note that 79 of the 154 listings require a 30-night minimum stay, which behaves more like mid-term housing than nightly vacation rental. Mixing them into a nightly ADR calculation will distort your numbers.
If I buy an existing short-term rental, do I inherit the seller's license?
No. Short-term rental licenses in Tillamook County are tied to the operator's registration, not the property deed. Plan to apply for your own permit after closing, and confirm current requirements with the county directly before you commit to a rental start date with a booking platform or property manager.
What should a buyer packet include before presenting it to a lender?
The current AirROI year for Neskowin specifically, the correct permitting office (Tillamook County), and a clear separation between visitor-spending data and actual debt-service math. If a lender wants more history than one year provides, say so rather than inventing or borrowing numbers from a neighboring coastal town.
Related Reading
More Neskowin, Oregon reading already live on Crest & Cove.
Work with Crest & Cove Creative
Neskowin's 154-listing sample runs $38,932 a year at 35.9 percent occupancy, down 7.6 percent, yet listings still borrow Forks, Washington's unrelated $35,529 figure as a generic 'coastal number.'
We write Neskowin listing copy around its own Portland-and-Seattle guest base instead of the doubled-up Forks comparison a template happens to reuse.
Reach out at crestcove.co or (256) 998-7502.
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