Cape Fear & Brunswick Islands STR Market Report: Where the Numbers Point in 2026

Thomas Garner
Jun 23
14 min read

Updated: Jun 29

The Cape Fear and Brunswick Islands corridor is one of the most fragmented, independent-host-heavy stretches of the North Carolina coast — and one of the fastest-growing in supply. AirROI's trailing-12-month window (June 2025–May 2026, updated June 2, 2026) counts more than 7,500 active short-term rentals across Wilmington, Pleasure Island, and the Brunswick barrier islands combined, with double-digit year-over-year listing growth in nearly every town. Brunswick County visitor spending reached $1.22 billion in 2024 (State Port Pilot), outpacing New Hanover's $1.14 billion despite less national name recognition — a signal that the southern half of this corridor is absorbing demand faster than the urban beach hub.

That growth is not uniform in returns. Revenue is rising in Wilmington (+17.4% YoY on AirROI) and across most beach towns, but supply is rising faster in Oak Island (+60.6%) and Ocean Isle Beach (+68.9%), where per-listing revenue growth has flattened to +2.7% on AirROI — a classic saturation read. The corridor's feeder markets are overwhelmingly drive-to: Raleigh–Durham, Charlotte, and the Triad account for the top in-state origin shares on NC beach destinations (2021 NC Visitor Profile, Visit NC), which keeps seasonality moderate relative to the flight-dependent Outer Banks but still punishing for hosts who run summer-only calendars.

This report is an editorial cross-market read for hosts, small property managers, and prospective investors deciding where to buy or how to position inventory — not a raw data dump. The job is to tell you which towns reward high-turnover cash flow, which reward low-turnover luxury, and where supply growth is compressing returns, grounded in the statewide regulatory reality that shapes every number below.

The Cape Fear & Brunswick Islands STR Landscape by the Numbers

AirROI is the primary data spine here: entire active market (Airbnb + Vrbo de-duplicated), trailing-12-month realized averages including part-year and low-occupancy listings. That methodology produces lower occupancy and revenue figures than Rabbu or Airbtics, which project performance for typical full-time listings — always name the source when you quote a number.

*Table 1 — Cape Fear and Brunswick Islands STR performance by town (AirROI market-wide averages, trailing 12 months June 2025–May 2026).*

Town	County	Active listings	Market occupancy (T12M)	Average daily rate	Avg annual revenue per listing	Revenue change (YoY)	Supply change (YoY)
Wilmington	New Hanover	1,596	43.4%	$230	$28,053	+17.4%	+22.9%
Wrightsville Beach	New Hanover	495	38.4%	$563	$57,054	+23.5%	+17.6%
Carolina Beach	New Hanover	1,671	42.1%	$357	$38,010	+24.0%	+25.1%
Kure Beach	New Hanover	495	40.5%	$468	$46,813	+26.3%	+27.2%
Oak Island	Brunswick	1,497	37.1%	$480	$40,491	+19.6%	+60.6%
Holden Beach	Brunswick	312	33.0%	$505	$35,998	+19.9%	+20.5%
Ocean Isle Beach	Brunswick	564	35.8%	$611	$54,113	+2.7%	+68.9%
Sunset Beach	Brunswick	342	35.8%	$272	$22,024	+14.4%	+24.4%
Bald Head Island	Brunswick	200	31.6%	$686	$55,415	+33.7%	+41.8%

*Source: AirROI per-town reports, trailing 12 months June 2025–May 2026 (updated June 2, 2026).*

Three region-wide themes jump out of the table. First, houses dominate the barrier islands — Oak Island is 86.1% houses with 80.9% of inventory at 3+ bedrooms (AirROI) — while Carolina Beach and Sunset Beach skew condo-heavy. Second, every beach town peaks in July and troughs in January; peak single-month revenue runs 4–7x the winter floor on the islands, while Wilmington's downtown and UNCW-driven demand flattens the curve. Third, Wrightsville Beach is the supply outlier on the New Hanover side (+17.6% YoY, the slowest growth in the region) because zoning compliance and fixture-based parking constrain new entrants more than ordinance caps ever could.

Cross-provider disagreement is material and worth quoting honestly. Wilmington shows 1,596 active listings on AirROI versus ~1,150 on Rabbu (Airbnb-only) and 1,159 on Airbtics — methodology, not market collapse. Occupancy ranges from 43.4% (AirROI market average) to ~59% for a typical full-time listing on Rabbu/Airbtics. ADR spans $167–$230 depending on universe. Oak Island occupancy runs 37–59% and ADR $339–$480 across providers — one of the widest spreads in the dossier because big oceanfront houses pull AirROI's blended average up while median condos sit lower.

Which Town Fits Which Strategy

Use this decision frame before you chase a single-town AirDNA page.

High-turnover cash flow (condos, boardwalk energy, film/wedding overflow): Carolina Beach and Wilmington urban inventory. Carolina Beach carries the region's highest summer occupancy — July at 68.4% on AirROI — with 49.7% condo share and a boardwalk/Freeman Park guest who books shorter stays. Wilmington trades beach ADR for year-round demand: UNCW, medical, downtown weddings, and "Hollywood East" film crews fill January and February better than any barrier island.

Low-turnover luxury (oceanfront houses, HOA minimum nights, rate over volume): Wrightsville Beach and Bald Head Island. Wrightsville averages $563 ADR and $57,054 annual revenue on AirROI with 73-day booking lead times and 94.7% of listings charging cleaning fees averaging $419 — a deliberate weekly-rental culture reinforced by private HOA covenants that set minimum nights independently of town zoning. Bald Head commands the corridor's highest ADR ($686) at the lowest occupancy (31.6%) — golf-cart island, ferry access, owner-use-heavy.

Big-family beach house at scale (sleeps 8+, Saturday-to-Saturday): Oak Island and Holden Beach. Oak Island is the Brunswick Islands' largest market by listing count with 62.2% of inventory sleeping 8+ guests. Holden runs 96.2% houses, 4-bedroom modal size, 90-day average lead time, and a town-imposed 2-night minimum stay — the structural definition of low-turnover family rhythm.

Premium ADR with saturation risk: Ocean Isle Beach. Highest RevPAR in the dossier ($256 on AirROI) and July peak revenue of $16,592 per listing — but +68.9% supply growth against +2.7% revenue growth is the corridor's clearest compression signal. Key Data's Brunswick County read for 2025 trended flat to slightly down at the aggregate level — directionally consistent with per-listing softening in the fastest-growing supply towns.

Story-and-shoulder positioning (golf, snowbirds, romance): Sunset Beach and the Brunswick Plantation corridor. Lowest barrier-island ADR ($272) but 14.4% revenue growth on modest 24.4% supply growth — demand absorbing inventory better than premium neighbors. Roughly one-third of listings carry 30+ night minimums (AirROI), the cluster's highest long-stay concentration.

Town-by-Town Operating Profiles

Wilmington: The Urban Year-Round Market

Wilmington is the only true urban STR market in this report — lower ADR, smaller units, diversified demand that does not disappear when the beach crowds leave. AirROI shows 1,596 active listings, 43.4% trailing occupancy, $230 ADR, and $28,053 average annual revenue per listing, with revenue up 17.4% YoY on 22.9% supply growth. Rabbu and Airbtics cite ~59% occupancy and $167–$174 ADR for typical full-time Airbnb listings — the range you should quote when talking to an investor comparing Wilmington to Carolina Beach.

Seasonality is the differentiator versus the islands. Peak July averages $4,643 monthly revenue at 59.0% occupancy on AirROI; January trough runs $2,370 — a peak-to-trough ratio near 2x on AirROI, or roughly 3x on full-time-listing projections, versus 4–7x on barrier islands. Film production, UNCW commencement and parents' weekends, medical travel, and downtown wedding blocks create demand anchors no beach town replicates. Wilmington was also the #1 U.S. metro for inbound migration in 2024 (APG Companies) — a structural tailwind for furnished rentals and mid-term stays.

Guest taxes inside city limits stack to approximately 15%: 7% New Hanover sales tax, 6% county room occupancy tax, and 2% city lodging tax under Ordinance #0509 (adopted November 21, 2024), confirmed stacking per New Hanover County and strprofitmap sources.

Wrightsville Beach vs. Carolina Beach: The New Hanover Contrast

These two markets sit fifteen miles apart and operate on opposite STR physics.

Wrightsville Beach is low-turnover luxury: 495 listings, $563 ADR, 38.4% market-wide occupancy, +17.6% supply growth (zoning-constrained). The town uses a Certificate of Zoning Compliance — a change in ownership triggers a fresh review — plus fixture-based residential parking (1–3 toilet fixtures require 2 spaces; 8+ fixtures require 5). Private HOA covenants set minimum-night rules the town cannot override. Oceanfront and Harbor Island sound-front houses command the top tier; 73-day average booking lead time signals planners, not bargain hunters.

Carolina Beach is high-turnover value: 1,671 listings (the region's second-largest count), $357 ADR, 42.1% occupancy, +25.1% supply growth. It is the most condo-heavy beach in New Hanover (49.7% apartments/condos). July hits 68.4% occupancy — highest summer occupancy of any New Hanover beach on AirROI. Top-10% listings exceed $8,488 per month at 73%+ occupancy (AirROI). The guest is Triangle and Charlotte families who want boardwalk energy, Freeman Park 4x4 access, and shorter stays without Wrightsville's rate floor.

Kure Beach (495 listings, $468 ADR, +26.3% revenue YoY) splits the difference — quieter southern Pleasure Island, oceanfront houses near Fort Fisher, strong July occupancy at 67.7%.

Oak Island: Volume, Big Houses, and Saturation Pressure

Oak Island is the Brunswick Islands' inventory leader: 1,497 active listings on AirROI, 86.1% houses, 40% three-bedroom modal, 62.2% sleeping 8+ guests. ADR averages $480 with 37.1% market occupancy; Rabbu/Airbtics full-time projections run ~$339 median ADR with ~59% occupancy for active operators — always label which universe you mean.

The supply story dominates the investment read. +60.6% YoY listing growth is among the fastest in North Carolina (AirROI). Revenue still grew 19.6% — demand is not collapsing — but AirDNA ranks Oak Island top-12% nationally for revenue and bottom-48% for occupancy, the classic high-rate, lower-occupancy big-house profile. Oceanfront west-end houses remain top earners; new supply is compressing marginal second-row inventory fastest.

Oak Island levies a 5% town accommodations tax — 3% tourism-related plus 2% beach protection/re-nourishment — on rentals under 90 continuous days, town-collected, due monthly by the 20th (Oak Island finance page). Combined with 6.75% Brunswick sales tax, total guest tax runs approximately 11.75% — the lowest occupancy-tax burden in the Brunswick beach towns.

Brunswick County: The Shoulder-Season Differentiation Lever

Brunswick County is not one market — it is a tiered island chain where aggregate performance hides town-level divergence. Visitor spending hit $1.22 billion in 2024 (+4.8%), ranking 6th of 100 NC counties (State Port Pilot), stronger growth than New Hanover's +1.5%. At the STR layer, Key Data's 2025 Brunswick County read trended flat to slightly down while AirROI still shows positive revenue YoY in Holden (+19.9%) and Oak Island (+19.6%) — the gap is the saturation towns dragging the average.

Holden Beach (312 listings, $505 ADR, 33.0% occupancy) sells deliberate Saturday-to-Saturday family rhythm: 96.2% houses, 90-day lead time, 5.5-night average stay, January trough occupancy at 14.8% — one of the deepest winter floors in the region. Ocean Isle (564 listings, $611 ADR, $54,113 revenue) is the premium play with the saturation warning. Sunset (342 listings, $272 ADR, $22,024 revenue) is the slow-coast value position. Bald Head (200 listings, $686 ADR, $55,415 revenue) is ferry-only luxury — compare to its own peer set, not Oak Island volume plays.

The shoulder-season lever that separates winning Brunswick operators from summer-only hosts: golf and snowbird strategy. Brunswick Plantation, Oyster Rock, and the Calabash seafood corridor feed September–November and January–March demand from Triangle and Charlotte retirees who drive rather than fly. Roughly 30% of Sunset listings already carry 30+ night minimums (AirROI). Holden and Ocean Isle reward hosts who merchandise fall golf tee-time flexibility and winter monthly stays as separate inventory lanes — not deeper discounts alone.

Seasonality and the Drive-Market Calendar

Every town in this corridor peaks in July; June is the secondary revenue month on AirROI across New Hanover beaches. January is the universal trough — winter occupancy on the islands drops to 20–24% on market-wide averages. Wilmington's January floor is higher (36.5% occupancy on AirROI) because downtown demand does not vanish.

The drive-market calendar shapes booking behavior differently than the Outer Banks. Statewide, Raleigh–Durham (10.8%), the Triad (8.2%), and Charlotte (7.9%) are the top NC overnight origin markets (2021 NC Visitor Profile). For NC beach destinations specifically, Raleigh/Durham ranks first, then Charlotte, then the Triad — I-40 and I-95 drive audiences who plan ahead for summer but can also fill shoulder weekends.

November carries the corridor's shortest booking window — roughly 14 days average lead time for late-fall golf and holiday-weekend trips versus 45–90 days for peak-summer family weeks on Holden (90 days) and Wrightsville (73 days) on AirROI. Hosts who miss the January–March planning surge for July weeks lose the drive-market guest who books once and returns annually. Fall is the second demand engine after spring: within a three-week October window, the region stacks the U.S. Open King Mackerel (Oct 1–3), Riverfest (Oct 3–4), IRONMAN 70.3 North Carolina (Oct 17, 2026), and Festival by the Sea (Oct 24–25) — booking out Wrightsville and Wilmington lodging for athlete and spectator overflow.

August — when this report publishes — sits between festival spikes: pure family-beach demand, peak occupancy on Oak Island (58–66%) and Holden (57%), but no single event anchor. That is the right moment to run fall-tier pricing and snowbird landing pages before November's compressed window opens.

The Regulatory Through-Line: Schroeder and What Actually Governs Supply

The single legal fact that shapes every number in this report: N.C.G.S. 160D-1207(c) bars municipalities from requiring STR registration, caps, lotteries, or density separation schemes. Schroeder v. City of Wilmington (NC Court of Appeals, April 5, 2022) struck down Wilmington's registration mandate, 2% overall cap, lottery, and 400-foot separation rule while preserving parking, occupancy-per-bedroom, and nuisance enforcement (UNC School of Government Coates' Canons).

No town in this corridor can lawfully run a Wilmington-style registration lottery. Towns instead use zoning-compliance certificates, parking ratios, occupancy limits, and noise ordinances. Wilmington's post-Schroeder framework under Ordinance #0509 issues an STR Owner Permit ($75/unit/year) framed as zoning compliance — not a registration cap — with LLC/trust limits of six properties and natural persons uncapped (strprofitmap). Wrightsville Beach requires a Certificate of Zoning Compliance before use, with ownership change triggering re-review.

HOA covenants and private deed restrictions are the real supply governor — not town permits. Sea Trail villas at Sunset Beach, Wrightsville condo regimes, and Bald Head Club areas impose minimum-stay rules, rental caps, and amenity restrictions that 160D-1207 does not preempt. A property zoned for STR can still be unwelcome on Airbnb if the HOA bans weekly rentals. Verify covenants parcel-by-parcel before you model revenue on a listing count that includes non-bookable inventory.

Exception — Southport: The city's July 8, 2021 UDO amendment prohibits new short-term vacation rentals in residential districts (R-10, R-20, MF). Only properties with verifiable pre-July 8, 2021 bookings may continue as lawful nonconforming uses, subject to an annual zoning permit renewed each calendar year. Grandfathered status can be lost if the STR discontinues for more than 180 consecutive days (rentals of 30+ continuous days do not count as discontinuance) or if the annual permit lapses — a zoning prohibition, not a registration cap, that survives Schroeder. Southport is effectively a closed market for new residential entrants; verify transfer and sale rules directly with Development Services before any mainland Brunswick purchase (the city's former STR FAQ page is offline; the adopted UDO text is the authoritative source).

Supply Saturation Risk: Oak Island and Brunswick County

Honest saturation math, not boosterism.

Oak Island added roughly 60% more listings year-over-year on AirROI while revenue grew 19.6%. New supply is not failing — it is diluting per-listing occupancy. Marginal inventory — dated interiors, second-row walks, four-bedroom houses without a pool in a pool-heavy comp set — will feel compression first. Top-decile oceanfront houses still clear $10,819 peak July revenue on AirROI.

Ocean Isle Beach is the sharper warning: +68.9% supply against +2.7% revenue YoY on AirROI — the flattest revenue growth in the region against the fastest supply surge. Key Data's aggregate Brunswick read for 2025 flat-to-slightly-down aligns. Investors chasing Ocean Isle's $611 ADR in 2024 are buying into a market where new oceanfront inventory doubled faster than guest nights expanded.

Brunswick County-wide, the winning 2026 posture is differentiation over duplication: golf-and-snowbird shoulder lanes, Kindred Spirit story positioning at Sunset, Holden Saturday-to-Saturday family merchandising — not another undifferentiated five-bedroom with a pool competing on rate alone against 1,400+ Oak Island listings.

Work with Crest & Cove Creative

Ready to put this strategy to work in Coastal Georgia?

Crest & Cove Creative partners with a select group of independent hosts in the Southeast each quarter — focused on listing quality, organic search visibility, and direct booking growth. If your property isn't reaching the guests it should be, that's exactly the kind of problem we solve. Reach out directly at crestcove.co — we'll take an honest look at where your listing stands and tell you plainly whether we can help.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the best NC coast Airbnb market for short-term rental investment in 2026? There is no single winner — the corridor is strategy-dependent. Wilmington rewards year-round urban cash flow at lower ADR; Carolina Beach rewards high-turnover condo operators; Wrightsville and Bald Head reward low-turnover luxury; Oak Island rewards big-family houses at scale but carries the highest saturation risk (+60.6% supply YoY on AirROI). Ocean Isle offers the highest ADR ($611) with the weakest revenue growth (+2.7%) against surging supply — an advanced operator market, not a default first purchase.

How saturated is the Oak Island STR market? AirROI counts 1,497 active listings with +60.6% YoY supply growth — among the fastest in North Carolina. Revenue still grew 19.6%, so demand exists, but per-listing occupancy compresses for undifferentiated inventory. AirDNA ranks Oak Island top-12% nationally for revenue and bottom-48% for occupancy — high rate, lower volume. New entrants need a clear comp-set edge (oceanfront, pool, elevator, west-end proximity), not a generic five-bedroom house.

What is Wilmington NC Airbnb occupancy in 2026? On AirROI's market-wide average (June 2025–May 2026), Wilmington runs 43.4% trailing-12-month occupancy with $230 ADR and $28,053 average annual revenue per listing. Rabbu and Airbtics show ~59% for a typical full-time listing — the figure investor blogs usually cite. Always specify which universe: market average includes part-year and low-performing listings; full-time projection reflects an actively managed operator.

Wrightsville Beach or Carolina Beach — which is better for Airbnb? Wrightsville for low-turnover luxury: $563 ADR, 73-day lead times, HOA minimum-night culture, zoning-constrained supply (+17.6% YoY). Carolina Beach for high-turnover value: 1,671 listings, July occupancy 68.4%, condo-heavy inventory, boardwalk/Freeman Park demand. Kure Beach splits the difference for quieter Pleasure Island houses at $468 ADR.

How does Brunswick County vacation rental performance compare to New Hanover? Brunswick visitor spending ($1.22B, +4.8%) now exceeds New Hanover ($1.14B, +1.5%) on 2024 Tourism Economics data — the growth story is south. At the STR layer, Brunswick beach towns carry higher ADRs ($480–$611 on Oak Island and Ocean Isle) but sharper seasonality and lower market-wide occupancy (33–37%) than Wilmington's urban 43.4%. Key Data's 2025 Brunswick aggregate trended flat to slightly down while Ocean Isle supply surged +68.9% — saturation risk is county-specific, not county-wide.

Can NC towns ban or cap Airbnb after Schroeder? Municipalities cannot require STR registration, numeric caps, lotteries, or separation distances (160D-1207 / Schroeder). They can enforce zoning, parking, occupancy-per-bedroom, noise, and nuisance rules. HOAs can ban or restrict rentals regardless of zoning. Southport is the exception: it prohibits new residential STRs via zoning (grandfathered only, with annual zoning permits and 180-day discontinuance rules) — verify transfer and sale rules with the city before any mainland Brunswick purchase.

When should hosts price fall golf and winter snowbird stays on the Brunswick coast? Merchandise September–November and January–March as separate lanes before November's ~14-day compressed booking window. Holden averages 90-day summer lead times (AirROI) — fall and winter guests book closer in. Build monthly landing pages, 28+ night calendars, and golf-proximity copy aligned to Brunswick Plantation and Calabash overflow; do not rely on summer-only pricing to carry a Holden or Sunset listing through January's 14–21% occupancy trough.

How does Cape Fear STR seasonality compare to the Outer Banks? This corridor is drive-market heavy (Triangle, Charlotte, Triad) rather than flight-dependent, so shoulder seasons stretch longer — March through November on New Hanover's expanded calendar (WECT). Wilmington's peak-to-trough revenue ratio runs roughly 2–3x on AirROI versus 4–7x on barrier islands. July remains the revenue anchor everywhere; January is the universal trough. Fall golf and winter snowbirds are the Brunswick differentiation lever the Outer Banks' rental-agency culture handles differently.

About the Authors

Crest & Cove Creative is a Southeast-focused short-term rental marketing agency founded by Thomas Garner and Jacob Mishalanie. We build direct-booking brands, listing optimization systems, and market-specific content strategies for independent STR operators across the Gulf Coast, Appalachian Mountains, Coastal Georgia, the Carolinas, and Southeast lake country.